Hurricane PALOMA
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HURRICANE PALOMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1500 UTC FRI NOV 07 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 11 33 41
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 1 22 32 29
TROPICAL STORM 1 2 11 18 51 31 27
HURRICANE 99 98 89 81 15 4 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 24 12 36 36 12 3 2
HUR CAT 2 59 35 31 25 2 X 1
HUR CAT 3 16 44 18 14 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 1 7 3 4 X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 100KT 90KT 75KT 50KT 30KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 3(19) X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 10(28) 3(31) X(31)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 13(30) 4(34) 1(35)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 5(24) 1(25)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 9(10) 19(29) 9(38) 3(41) X(41) 1(42)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAMAGUEY 34 1 5( 6) 31(37) 22(59) 5(64) 2(66) X(66)
CAMAGUEY 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 86 6(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 56 15(71) 2(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 29 18(47) 2(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
MONTEGO BAY 34 1 6( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
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