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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008               
0300 UTC THU NOV 06 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       3       3       4       5       9      19
TROP DEPRESSION 24      14       8       5       3       8      22
TROPICAL STORM  74      74      59      39      17      36      41
HURRICANE        2      10      30      52      75      47      18
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       9      25      36      28      30      15
HUR CAT 2        X       1       3      11      21      11       2
HUR CAT 3        X       1       1       4      19       5       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       6       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    50KT    60KT    70KT    90KT    70KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   9(22)   2(24)   X(24)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  5   6(11)   8(19)   4(23)   7(30)   1(31)   X(31)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   8(18)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   1(16)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)   2(19)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  16(24)   8(32)   2(34)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  14(30)   2(32)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  16(26)   6(32)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   8(20)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  13(22)  27(49)   9(58)   2(60)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  16(19)   7(26)   1(27)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   X(13)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)  13(17)  12(29)   5(34)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   4(23)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
                                                                    
                                                                    
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