Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008               
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       2       2       4      11
TROP DEPRESSION 17      15      13      11       7      11      19
TROPICAL STORM  81      77      69      59      43      45      46
HURRICANE        2       7      16      28      47      40      24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       6      14      22      31      28      19
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       4      10       8       3
HUR CAT 3        1       1       1       1       5       3       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    55KT    65KT    60KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CURACAO        34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   X(13)   1(14)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)  11(43)   2(45)   X(45)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  21(27)  15(42)   2(44)   1(45)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   X(15)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  24(43)   3(46)   X(46)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)   1(17)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)  23(43)   3(46)   X(46)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)   X(16)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  26(34)   6(40)   1(41)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  21(27)   5(32)   X(32)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   5(27)   2(29)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   5(24)   X(24)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   X(17)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   1(21)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN