Hurricane OMAR

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HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

CORRECTED POSITION LATITUDE IN MAIN BODY AND REPEAT SECTION

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... 
 
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
 
DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.  DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
 
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...66.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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