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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  49                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS
...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X      11      26      38      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X      58      73      55      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  65      31       1       7      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       35       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       34       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        1       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    35KT    30KT    30KT    NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BURAS LA       34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34 80   9(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
SHREVEPORT LA  50 23  20(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
SHREVEPORT LA  64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GALVESTON TX   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GALVESTON TX   64 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HOUSTON TX     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HOUSTON TX     64 78   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FREEPORT TX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FREEPORT TX    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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