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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  45                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2      20      50      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1      10      53      46      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X      14      73      27       4      NA      NA
HURRICANE       99      85      15       1       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       10      25      10       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       54      29       2       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       34      29       3       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        1       3       1       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT   100KT    55KT    35KT    30KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 10   4(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BURAS LA       34 40   4(44)   X(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSON MS     34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 29   9(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 30   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 30  15(45)   2(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 54  16(70)   2(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  5  11(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 78  14(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  2  18(20)  21(41)   8(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 48  40(88)   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  6  55(61)  10(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X  28(28)  12(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 54  40(94)   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
GALVESTON TX   50 13  71(84)   7(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
GALVESTON TX   64  1  50(51)  11(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 26  57(83)  10(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
HOUSTON TX     50  2  61(63)  15(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
HOUSTON TX     64  X  19(19)  17(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  3  17(20)  11(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  2  11(13)   7(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 45  44(89)   4(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
FREEPORT TX    50 10  65(75)   6(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
FREEPORT TX    64  X  37(37)  11(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 72  22(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 43  37(80)   1(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  5  40(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 22  42(64)   4(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
PORT O CONNOR  50  2  28(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  7  18(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 33  21(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  4  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  5   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  6   6(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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