Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
JUST AFTER 0700 UTC.  AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
952 MB.  THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...
SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IKE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.  IKE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11.  IKE IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE
CENTER.  WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.7N  95.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 34.6N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 38.6N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 42.5N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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