Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO
RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.  SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE.  SINCE THE INNER CORE
APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG
AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.  

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN
3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS. 
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  I AM
FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS
A GLOBAL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 21.8N  80.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 22.4N  82.3W    80 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 24.8N  87.2W    95 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  91.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 27.0N  94.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 
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