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Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  15(22)   7(29)   2(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  15(22)   6(28)   2(30)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   9(11)   6(17)   1(18)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   X(19)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   7(21)   3(24)   X(24)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   4( 5)  10(15)   7(22)   6(28)   2(30)   X(30)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  7   8(15)   6(21)   3(24)   5(29)   2(31)   1(32)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  5   4( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   4(22)   3(25)   X(25)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   7(18)   4(22)   1(23)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  11(26)  10(36)   4(40)   1(41)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 178N 1060W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 178N 1060W 50 17   9(26)   2(28)   1(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 12 178N 1060W 64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 184N 1067W 34 43  25(68)   9(77)   3(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 184N 1067W 50  3  15(18)  10(28)   3(31)   1(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 24 184N 1067W 64  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 36 192N 1074W 34  6  29(35)  25(60)   7(67)   5(72)   1(73)   1(74)
 36 192N 1074W 50  X   4( 4)  15(19)   6(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)
 36 192N 1074W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 48 200N 1079W 34  1  11(12)  30(42)  12(54)   9(63)   2(65)   X(65)
 48 200N 1079W 50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)   7(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 48 200N 1079W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 72 210N 1090W 34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  16(32)  15(47)   4(51)   1(52)
 72 210N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 72 210N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 215N 1105W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)  17(29)   6(35)   1(36)
 96 215N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 96 215N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 220N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)
120 220N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 220N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      70      75      65      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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