Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 2(19)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 154N 1090W 34 34 15(49) 6(55) 3(58) 2(60) 1(61) X(61)
12 154N 1090W 50 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
12 154N 1090W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 156N 1089W 34 30 17(47) 5(52) 4(56) 2(58) 1(59) 1(60)
24 156N 1089W 50 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
24 156N 1089W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
36 158N 1088W 34 25 17(42) 6(48) 5(53) 4(57) 2(59) X(59)
36 158N 1088W 50 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16)
36 158N 1088W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 162N 1090W 34 12 19(31) 9(40) 6(46) 6(52) 2(54) X(54)
48 162N 1090W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
48 162N 1090W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 168N 1093W 34 3 12(15) 9(24) 11(35) 5(40) 3(43) X(43)
72 168N 1093W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12)
72 168N 1093W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
96 175N 1100W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 11(20) 8(28) 4(32) 1(33)
96 175N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
96 175N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 185N 1110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 5(18) 3(21)
120 185N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
120 185N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 50 50 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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