Tropical Storm ERICK

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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
200 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007

LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERICK HAS BEEN QUITE A
CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANALYSIS OF A 0249 UTC QSCT PASS
ESTIMATED A CENTER ALIGNED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...
WHILE AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0624 UTC DEPICTED A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  CONVENTIONAL INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVEN
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE REFORMING IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...I
AM HESITATE TO MAKE SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGERY OR OTHER MORE CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT
FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AS WELL AS A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. IF
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ORGANIZATION...THEN LITTLE
STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR.  ON THE OTHER HAND IF REFORMATION
OCCURS...A SLIGHTLY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND 26-27C WATERS
WOULD HELP THE CYCLONE INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS
IN 3 OR SO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY
WITH THE SHIPS...SUPERENSEMBLE...AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.      
  
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AS WITH THE EARLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE GREATEST VARIATION IS WITH THE FORWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 13.3N 130.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.4N 131.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 133.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 135.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 14.2N 137.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 141.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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