Tropical Storm NOEL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1815 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
AT 1815Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 4(14)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 5(18)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 8(25) 3(28)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 8(30) 3(33)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 11(29) 5(34) 3(37)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 5(23) 4(27)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 5(20) 3(23) 3(26)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 2(16)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 8(30) 4(34) 3(37)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 25(26) 26(52) 4(56) 3(59) 2(61) 1(62)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 4(18) 2(20)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 3(18) 2(20)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
LES CAYES 34 23 36(59) 4(63) X(63) 1(64) 1(65) 1(66)
LES CAYES 50 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
LES CAYES 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 51 15(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO PLATA 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 176N 727W 34 78 5(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 1(85)
12 176N 727W 50 12 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21)
12 176N 727W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 187N 742W 34 9 43(52) 8(60) 1(61) 1(62) 1(63) 1(64)
24 187N 742W 50 X 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) 1(22)
24 187N 742W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 199N 755W 34 1 19(20) 27(47) 6(53) 2(55) 3(58) X(58)
36 199N 755W 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22)
36 199N 755W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
48 211N 766W 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 12(38) 6(44) 4(48) 2(50)
48 211N 766W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15)
48 211N 766W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 225N 775W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 10(31) 7(38) 2(40)
72 225N 775W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13)
72 225N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
96 235N 775W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 12(26) 7(33) 3(36)
96 235N 775W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
96 235N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
120 255N 755W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 5(25)
120 255N 755W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
120 255N 755W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 60 50 55 55 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
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