Tropical Depression TEN

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PANAMA CITY FL 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 22   6(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34 11  17(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MOBILE AL      50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  5  15(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 303N  876W 34 20   9(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 12 303N  876W 50  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 303N  876W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 307N  895W 34  2  18(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 24 307N  895W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 307N  895W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 315N  920W 34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 315N  920W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 315N  920W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      30       0       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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