Tropical Depression INGRID
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.5N 60.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 61.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0600Z 18.3N 62.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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