Tropical Storm INGRID

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TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
 
IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID
EARLY THIS MORNING.  BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A
TOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.  ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
BACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE
MEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN. 

INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF
THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
MAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9.  A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE
REMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.5N  52.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.2N  54.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N  55.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N  56.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  58.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N  59.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 23.5N  60.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  61.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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