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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression SIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   7(20)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   4(24)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   7(23)   1(24)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   4(25)   1(26)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)   X(16)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)   1(18)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GRENADA        34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 125N  622W 34 13   6(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 12 125N  622W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 125N  622W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 132N  655W 34  X  20(20)  10(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 24 132N  655W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 132N  655W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 140N  690W 34  X   1( 1)  29(30)   9(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 36 140N  690W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 140N  690W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 146N  726W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)  10(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 48 146N  726W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 146N  726W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 155N  790W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  11(32)   1(33)
 72 155N  790W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 72 155N  790W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 165N  840W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   7(26)
 96 165N  840W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
 96 165N  840W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 175N  885W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
120 175N  885W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
120 175N  885W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      50      55      60      70      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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