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Tropical Storm CHANTAL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007               
0300 UTC WED AUG 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  2  34(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 54   4(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34 24   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 36   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 466N  536W 34 57   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 12 466N  536W 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 466N  536W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 517N  451W 34  X  41(41)   9(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 24 517N  451W 50  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 517N  451W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 560N  370W 34  X   X( X)  49(49)  17(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 36 560N  370W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)  13(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 36 560N  370W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 579N  323W 34  X   X( X)  13(13)  50(63)   8(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 48 579N  323W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   7(31)   X(31)   1(32)
 48 579N  323W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 600N  250W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  31(48)   6(54)   2(56)
 72 600N  250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   3(20)   X(20)
 72 600N  250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 620N  165W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  17(29)   4(33)
 96 620N  165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 96 620N  165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 655N   80W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
120 655N   80W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 655N   80W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      50      60      50      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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