Tropical Storm PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 20(39) X(39)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) X(38)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) X(29)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 20(30) 23(53) 4(57) X(57)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 3(19) X(19)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 161N 1083W 34 69 6(75) 1(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
12 161N 1083W 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
12 161N 1083W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 162N 1096W 34 18 38(56) 7(63) 5(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70)
24 162N 1096W 50 1 8( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
24 162N 1096W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 165N 1105W 34 4 29(33) 15(48) 12(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65)
36 165N 1105W 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
36 165N 1105W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
48 175N 1110W 34 1 12(13) 17(30) 17(47) 14(61) 1(62) X(62)
48 175N 1110W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22)
48 175N 1110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
72 210N 1105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 31(37) 13(50) X(50)
72 210N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) X(16)
72 210N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
96 260N 1070W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10)
96 260N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 260N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 60 65 30 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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