Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
...PAUL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA
BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...111.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
 
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