Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
500 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
 
...PAUL MOVING NORTHWARD...SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  RECENT CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT PAUL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...AND
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...111.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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