Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...PAUL FORECAST TO WEAKEN...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
MAZATLAN TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES
...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 455
MILES...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.6 N...111.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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