Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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