Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN HAS
BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A SPRAWLING BAND OVER THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR TO BE TOO
HIGH...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON
THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z...WHICH SHOWED A FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT
VECTORS BUT A NUMBER OF BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE DEPRESSION IS
NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS IN SHOWING
THE DEPRESSION FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY BEHIND TROPICAL STORM NORMAN
TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION BY 72
HOURS...BUT IT WAS RUN OFF THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THEREFORE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR.  WHILE SHEAR COULD
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE IN SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 12.8N 127.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.2N 128.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 13.7N 128.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 127.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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