Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A LARGE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY YET. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY
PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL TO WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
REACHING COOLER WATERS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...NO CHANGES IN THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR
MEXICO ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 16.6N 102.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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