Tropical Depression KRISTY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
KRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NO REAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
25 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
19N132W MAY BE PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HR AGO.  KRISTY
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST KRISTY TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
5 DAYS AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED...WITH THE NOGAPS CALLING FOR THE
CYCLONE TO STALL NEAR 16N132W AFTER 24 HR.  THAT IS PROBABLY TOO
SLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR
96 HR JUST NORTH OF AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS. 
AFTER THAT...IT CALLS FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KRISTY REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27C...AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT FOR 48-60 HR.  THIS SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF KRISTY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS
FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
LIMITED CONVECTION AND ENTRAINMENT OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
INTO THE CIRCULATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO REFLECT THE
POSSIBILITY THE CONVECTION WILL RETURN.  HOWEVER...AN ALTERNATE
FORECAST SCENARIO HAS KRISTY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HR IF
THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN.  EVEN IF STRENGTHENING DOES
OCCUR...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 60 HR RESULTING IN EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY 120 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 16.5N 129.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N 132.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 135.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 138.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N 141.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     12/0600Z 16.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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