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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  1   9(10)  10(20)   2(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LA PAZ         50 73   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
LA PAZ         64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
LORETO         34 31  21(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
LORETO         50  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 253N 1116W 34 72   8(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 12 253N 1116W 50 32   5(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 12 253N 1116W 64  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 264N 1127W 34  4  27(31)   6(37)   1(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 24 264N 1127W 50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 264N 1127W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 275N 1138W 34  1   4( 5)  13(18)   2(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 36 275N 1138W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 275N 1138W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 285N 1150W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 285N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 48 285N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 295N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 295N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 295N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 295N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 96 295N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 295N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     40      30      25      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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