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Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...JOHN WEAKENS SOME...BUT IS STILL HEADED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES.  A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE
ISLAS MARIAS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTHWARD TO SAN EVERISTO ON THE EAST COAST...AND NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD
ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. 
 
REPORTS AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
JOHN REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 971
MB...28.67 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE. 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP
TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.7 N...107.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
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