ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENS SOME...BUT IS STILL HEADED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SAN EVERISTO ON THE EAST COAST...AND NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. REPORTS AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE JOHN REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.7 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC