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Tropical Storm FABIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006
 
AFTER COMPLETELY DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT
DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS APPEARS IS
HINDERING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TREND AND AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN LINE WITH THE FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE. TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...INCREASING
STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RENDER THE CYCLONE CONVECTION-FREE AND THE
FORECAST SHOWS DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. 

GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION...THE SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS
BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS 280/14. A
STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO IS EXPECTED STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE
SYSTEM WILL NOT BECOME SHALLOW UNTIL 48 HOURS AND THUS ALLOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS.  THEREAFTER...AN INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE
WEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS BUT THOSE MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM QUICKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 14.9N 131.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N 133.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.3N 136.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.6N 138.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N 141.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 147.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N 156.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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