Hurricane DANIEL

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 129N 1237W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 129N 1237W 50 86   6(92)   1(93)   X(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 129N 1237W 64 70   9(79)   1(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 
 24 133N 1251W 34 60  31(91)   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)
 24 133N 1251W 50 10  53(63)  10(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 24 133N 1251W 64  3  41(44)  11(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 36 138N 1267W 34  3  41(44)  33(77)   7(84)   3(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 138N 1267W 50  X  12(12)  35(47)   8(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 36 138N 1267W 64  X   5( 5)  24(29)   7(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
 48 143N 1283W 34  1   6( 7)  34(41)  22(63)  12(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 48 143N 1283W 50  X   1( 1)  13(14)  17(31)   8(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 48 143N 1283W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 153N 1315W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  26(39)   6(45)   1(46)
 72 153N 1315W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   1(18)
 72 153N 1315W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 163N 1345W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   2(21)
 96 163N 1345W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 96 163N 1345W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 175N 1370W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
120 175N 1370W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 175N 1370W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    115    115     105      90      75      60      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN