Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA CLARION   50 73   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 189N 1156W 34 81   6(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 189N 1156W 50 28   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 12 189N 1156W 64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 192N 1175W 34  4  36(40)   4(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 24 192N 1175W 50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 192N 1175W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 195N 1195W 34  1   4( 5)  12(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 195N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 195N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 195N 1215W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 48 195N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 195N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 195N 1235W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 195N 1235W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 195N 1235W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 196N 1260W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 96 196N 1260W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 196N 1260W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 195N 1285W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
120 195N 1285W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 195N 1285W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     40      30      25      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN