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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
1500 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
ISLA CLARION   50 59   5(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ISLA CLARION   64 19   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 185N 1150W 34 88   6(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 185N 1150W 50 47  10(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 12 185N 1150W 64 14   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 24 188N 1172W 34  3  58(61)   7(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 24 188N 1172W 50  X  21(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 188N 1172W 64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 190N 1192W 34  1  11(12)  24(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 190N 1192W 50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 190N 1192W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 190N 1215W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 48 190N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 190N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 195N 1250W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 72 195N 1250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 72 195N 1250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 200N 1270W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 96 200N 1270W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 200N 1270W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 200N 1290W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 200N 1290W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 200N 1290W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     55      45      35      30      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN