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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  15(17)  16(33)   5(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  24(38)  16(54)   1(55)   X(55)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)   1(22)   X(22)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 158N 1080W 34 93   4(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 158N 1080W 50 44  19(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 12 158N 1080W 64 11   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 24 163N 1100W 34 23  61(84)   6(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 163N 1100W 50  1  45(46)  13(59)   1(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 24 163N 1100W 64  X  18(18)   9(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 36 167N 1120W 34  2  29(31)  40(71)   9(80)   3(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 167N 1120W 50  X   4( 4)  33(37)  10(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 36 167N 1120W 64  X   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 48 170N 1140W 34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  26(58)  12(70)   X(70)   1(71)
 48 170N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  19(27)   7(34)   X(34)   1(35)
 48 170N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 
 72 175N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  25(40)   5(45)   1(46)
 72 175N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 72 175N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 180N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   8(23)   1(24)
 96 180N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 96 180N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 190N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
120 190N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
120 190N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     75      80      80      70      50      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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