Tropical Storm BUD

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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006

...CORRECTED TO ADD TRACK IN LAST SENTENCE...
 
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION
LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER
SSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING
BUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN
THE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT
WITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE
NOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH
BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A TRACK
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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