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Hurricane HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 213N  501W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 213N  501W 50 86   6(92)   X(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 213N  501W 64 59  15(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
 24 225N  515W 34 54  37(91)   4(95)   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 24 225N  515W 50  8  56(64)   9(73)   1(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 225N  515W 64  2  39(41)  11(52)   1(53)   1(54)   1(55)   X(55)
 
 36 230N  530W 34  6  51(57)  24(81)   6(87)   3(90)   X(90)   1(91)
 36 230N  530W 50  X  21(21)  31(52)   8(60)   4(64)   1(65)   X(65)
 36 230N  530W 64  X   8( 8)  24(32)   7(39)   2(41)   1(42)   X(42)
 
 48 235N  545W 34  2  14(16)  37(53)  17(70)   9(79)   2(81)   1(82)
 48 235N  545W 50  X   3( 3)  21(24)  17(41)   8(49)   3(52)   X(52)
 48 235N  545W 64  X   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)   6(29)   2(31)   X(31)
 
 
 72 245N  570W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  20(32)  24(56)   9(65)   2(67)
 72 245N  570W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  19(29)   6(35)   1(36)
 72 245N  570W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   1(19)
 
 
 96 270N  590W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  20(26)  18(44)   8(52)
 96 270N  590W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  11(19)   3(22)
 96 270N  590W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)
 
 
120 300N  595W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)  12(33)
120 300N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)
120 300N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95    100     100      95      90      85      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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