Tropical Storm HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 159N  421W 34 81   5(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 159N  421W 50  9   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 159N  421W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 170N  442W 34  9  56(65)   9(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 170N  442W 50  X  16(16)   9(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 24 170N  442W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 180N  460W 34  1  21(22)  33(55)   9(64)   5(69)   1(70)   X(70)
 36 180N  460W 50  X   2( 2)  16(18)   9(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 36 180N  460W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
 48 190N  474W 34  X   4( 4)  28(32)  19(51)  12(63)   2(65)   1(66)
 48 190N  474W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   8(27)   2(29)   1(30)
 48 190N  474W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 210N  500W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)  28(45)   9(54)   3(57)
 72 210N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   6(24)   1(25)
 72 210N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)
 
 
 96 230N  525W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  18(37)   7(44)
 96 230N  525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   3(19)
 96 230N  525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
 
120 245N  545W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   9(33)
120 245N  545W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)
120 245N  545W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      55      65      75      80      85
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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