Hurricane HELENE

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HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  49.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 125SE  90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  49.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  48.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N  50.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  90SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N  51.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N  53.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N  57.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N  59.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  49.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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