Tropical Storm FLORENCE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 183N 510W 34 83 5(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
12 183N 510W 50 11 8(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
12 183N 510W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 193N 530W 34 14 60(74) 7(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
24 193N 530W 50 X 24(24) 10(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
24 193N 530W 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
36 203N 552W 34 1 22(23) 38(61) 10(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73)
36 203N 552W 50 X 2( 2) 23(25) 8(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
36 203N 552W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
48 213N 576W 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 28(51) 13(64) 1(65) X(65)
48 213N 576W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31)
48 213N 576W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
72 235N 625W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 11(53) 3(56)
72 235N 625W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 2(26)
72 235N 625W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13)
96 255N 665W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 11(46)
96 255N 665W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21)
96 255N 665W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
120 285N 690W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 15(33)
120 285N 690W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
120 285N 690W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 55 60 65 75 85 95
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: