Tropical Storm ERNESTO
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) X(22)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) X(18)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) X(22)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) X(23)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) X(17)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 3(28) X(28)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 3(26) X(26)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) 1(26) X(26)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 13(32) 1(33) X(33)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 2(22) X(22)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 7(29) 2(31) X(31)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 19(33) 6(39) 1(40) X(40)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 18(41) 4(45) 1(46) X(46)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 12(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 26(32) 7(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 12 22(34) 2(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
ORLANDO FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 21 25(46) 3(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 38 9(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
FT PIERCE FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 51 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
FT MYERS FL 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
VENICE FL 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TAMPA FL 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 272N 810W 34 45 7(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
12 272N 810W 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 272N 810W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 295N 805W 34 3 34(37) 12(49) 1(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51)
24 295N 805W 50 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
24 295N 805W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 322N 797W 34 X 7( 7) 35(42) 7(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51)
36 322N 797W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
36 322N 797W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 347N 789W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 21(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39)
48 347N 789W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
48 347N 789W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 385N 787W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 4(25) X(25)
72 385N 787W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 385N 787W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 415N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16)
96 415N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
96 415N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 50 40 35 25 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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