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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...ERNESTO BACK OVER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA EAST
   COAST...
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES
...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
SQUALLY EAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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