Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT
LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN
THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE
FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT
10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF  ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64
KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.  THE
INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA
P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT.   

ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.        

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 31.3N  79.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 33.4N  78.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  78.0W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 40.1N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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