Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
RECONNAISSANCE DATA EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND 1003 MB PRESSURE JUST
BEFORE ERNESTO MADE ITS SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA NEAR THE MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LINE.
RECON ALSO FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT JUST OFFSHORE
THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. SINCE THEN...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FORM THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS AT DOWN TO AT LEAST 1001 MB. ALSO...THE NWS MIAMI
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED VELOCITIES OF 45-50 KT FROM 200 TO 3000
FEET ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND EXTENDING
INLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE UPPER KEYS. A FEW SPOTS OF 55 KT WINDS
HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED...AND THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION HAS
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 KT ALONG WITH A 10-METER WIND EQUIVALENT
OF 37-40 KT. BASE DON THIS DATA...THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO WILL
REMAIN AT 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/07. ERNESTO APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
TURNING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS
RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
...AND EXIT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH. ANOTHER LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A SHARP
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED AFTER THAT. IN 72-96 HOURS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO PULL ERNESTO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND
THEN IS MORE LEFT OF TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER THAT.

ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE THE CENTER REMAIN OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD ALSO HOLD
ONTO TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO RAINBANDS ALONG THE
COAST CONTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES
BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND BENEATH A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE
OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER
WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN...AND FOR THAT REASON
THE FOR MAINTAINING THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
BE AT 79 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AGAIN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO
HIGH BUT STILL INDICATIVE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR KEEPING
ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 72 HOURS AND FOR EXPANDING THE WIND
FIELD FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 25.6N  80.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 27.2N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 32.2N  79.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 34.7N  78.9W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 38.5N  78.7W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 41.5N  80.0W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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