Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
 
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THROUGH 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WAS STILL INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE FLIGHT JUST
OFFSHORE WERE 46 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY 37 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...ERNESTO WILL BE HELD AT MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS
INLAND...AND SINCE THAT TIME...CUBAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CAMAGUAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE RADAR
DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
ERNESTO...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS
TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR
THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY
SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER
CLEARS THE COASTS...BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...THE
LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. 
DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE.  THIS
COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE
OFFING.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 21.7N  77.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N  79.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 24.6N  80.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 26.4N  80.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  81.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 33.0N  80.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 36.5N  78.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/0000Z 39.0N  77.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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