Tropical Storm CHRIS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) X(16) 1(17)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
GREAT EXUMA 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 12 10(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GRAND TURK 34 52 X(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 2(22) X(22)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 4(22) X(22) 1(23)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 212N 728W 34 30 19(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
12 212N 728W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 212N 728W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 215N 753W 34 1 26(27) 10(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
24 215N 753W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 215N 753W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 220N 780W 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
36 220N 780W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 220N 780W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 226N 806W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24)
48 226N 806W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 226N 806W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 240N 855W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19)
72 240N 855W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
72 240N 855W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 245N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17)
96 245N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
96 245N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
120 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 30 35 40 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
NNNN
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