Tropical Depression CHRIS

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON CHRIS THIS
MORNING.  IN FACT...BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1130 UTC...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT ONLY MEASURED 29 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  THEREFORE...
CHRIS WAS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION ON THE INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AND WILL RETAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND 
A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ONLY INDICATED ABOUT 25 KT WINDS.

CHRIS REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. HOWEVER...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR CHRIS TO RESTRENGHTEN BACK TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS IF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IN THIS POSSIBILITY.  THEREAFTER...THE
FORECAST MAINTAINS CHRIS AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IF CHRIS SURVIVES THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IT MAY
NOT...IT MIGHT ENTER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH
OF THESE MODELS.

CHRIS TOOK A NORTHWESTWARD JOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A 12-HOUR
MOTION YIELDS 280/11 KT.  CHRIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEYOND DAY 3
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CHRIS ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED JUST NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 21.3N  71.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 21.6N  73.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 22.0N  76.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  78.6W    35 KT...NEAR CUBA
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.2N  81.3W    35 KT...NEAR CUBA 
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 24.3N  86.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  91.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  97.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
 
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