Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082005
2100Z MON AUG 22 2005
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 350SE 175SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 175SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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