Tropical Storm CALVIN

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TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032005
0900Z MON JUN 27 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  98.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  98.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  98.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N  99.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 101.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 103.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.9N 105.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  98.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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