Tropical Depression TWENTY-FOUR

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL242005
0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  79.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  79.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  78.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.8N  79.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N  80.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N  80.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N  80.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N  82.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  79.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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