Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182005
0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  71.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  71.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  70.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N  73.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N  75.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N  77.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N  80.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N  89.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N  93.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  71.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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