Hurricane KATRINA

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HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122005
0900Z SAT AUG 27 2005
 
AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND
FOR FLORIDA BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  84.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE  90SE  90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE  90SE  90SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  84.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.5N  85.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N  88.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.4N  89.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.5N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE  90SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 40.0N  82.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N  84.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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